HEOR / Market Access
A probabilistic budget impact model simulating the financial consequences of bezuclastinib entering the systemic mastocytosis market against Ayvakit (avapritinib). This proof of concept demonstrates AMCP-format payer analytics with 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations, tornado sensitivity analysis, and three-scenario comparison — built entirely in-browser with no backend dependencies.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) with configurable epidemiological, pricing, and market share parameters. Tornado sensitivity analysis and scenario comparison across payer archetypes.
Running 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations...
10,000 iterations with seeded PRNG (Mulberry32) for full reproducibility. Each iteration independently samples 16 parameters from their respective distributions, computes the population funnel, and calculates two-world cost differentials.
Normal (Box-Muller), Beta (Marsaglia-Tsang gamma method), and Triangular (inverse CDF) distributions. Beta distributions model bounded proportions while Triangular captures expert-elicited ranges with asymmetric uncertainty.
One-way tornado analysis varies each parameter ±20% from base case while holding all others constant. Ranks parameters by absolute swing in net budget impact, identifying the key cost drivers for payer negotiation strategy.